Snow still expected Tuesday night into Wednesday…

First off, it needs to be mentioned that there will be 1-3 inches of snow overnight tonight for most of southeast Michigan (except for Lenawee and Monroe counties can expect 2-4 inches).  The heaviest snow can be expected between about 1am-4am.

Now on to the major winter storm…there have been some slight changes in the models that could lower totals somewhat from what has been discussed over the weekend.  Either way this is still going to be a big winter storm with plenty of snow.  Let’s take a look at what to expect.

This storm is in the strengthening/organization period of its life at this current time.  Looking at the image below, you can see that there are two upper level waves, one to the north and another to the south.  These waves will phase with each other which will result in the strengthening of the southern wave.  This southern wave will then move into Texas and then shift to the northeast in our direction.  

 Image courtesy of NWS

With the upper level wave strengthening, the low pressure system at the surface will rapidly strengthen as well.  This surface low and its counterclockwise spin will cause the winds to blow northward over the Gulf of Mexico which will transport plenty of moisture northward into our direction.  The two images below show the expected position of the surface low pressure system Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning as it approaches Michigan.

 Images courtesy of HPC

So the strong system with plenty of moisture (along with other upper level dynamics) will give us a rather large winter storm.  The current winter storm watch is for 4pm Tuesday to 7pm Wednesday and the current forecast is for 8-12 inches to fall during this time.  The heaviest snow is forecasted to fall between 1am-7am Wednesday morning where 5-8 inches of the total could occur.  Yesterday I said 8-12 was conservative, and it still can be, but this morning’s models have suggested that the system will track further south than originally anticipated, and the dynamics involved could be weaker than once thought.  Either way, this will be a strong storm.

I will write another posting tomorrow during the afternoon after the morning weather models come out to give a final forecast for the snow totals.