As I mentioned in the last posting, warm temperatures and rain can be expected tonight through Saturday. This is thanks to southeast Michigan being in the warm sector of a pretty strong approaching low pressure system. We can expect temperatures in the 40s both Friday and Saturday before temperatures drop into the 20s on Sunday. Below is a summary of what to expect.
Below is the current surface map that shows the two main areas of low pressure that will move to the northeast in our general direction. Ahead of the cold front is a strong low-level jet with winds of 40-50kts that will bring in a large amount of moisture to southeast Michigan.
Image courtesy of HPC
The water vapor image below confirms the moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico. This is expected to continue until the cold front passes on Saturday.
Image courtesy of RAP
With the moisture and an approaching system, you can expect lots of rain. The first period of rain will come during the Friday morning/afternoon time frame. During this time, a higher dose of moisture will be advected into our area. This moisture along with upward forcing will cause heavy rain with the possibility of thunder. The second period of rain is expected Friday evening into Saturday morning ahead of the approaching cold front. The moisture combined with the upward forcing caused by the cold front will produce another round of rain. Below are a couple of maps that show the expected rain.
Image courtesy of HPC
The above image is the expected precipitation total from 7pm Friday evening to 7pm Saturday evening.
Image courtesy of HPC
The above image shows the expected precipitation total from 7pm Saturday evening to 7pm Sunday evening.
Image courtesy of HPC
The above image shows the 5 day total precipitation from 7pm Friday to 7pm Wednesday. The expected precipitation total for our area is between 0.5-0.75 of an inch. The precipitation will be all rain with a chance of snow flurries after the cold front passes.
Unfortunately, all the precipitation will fall as rain in southeast Michigan. If it were all snow then we would be expecting about 5-10 inches of snow. To our west, there will be a lot of snow with winter storm warnings (pink), blizzard warnings (red), and winter weather advisories (purple) as shown below.
Image courtesy of NWS
Temperatures will then cool back down to near normal after the cold front passes. Sunday’s high will be in the mid to upper 20s and in the low 30s during the week.
