Cold temperatures has been the story so far this winter

This winter has been pretty cold so far overall, not only our area but also for much of the eastern third of the U.S.  Looking at the southeast Michigan temperatures thus far for December and January (as of Jan 22^nd)…

10 days were above average

  4 days were average

39 days were below average

Breaking down the 39 days that were below average…

16 days were 1°F - 4°F below average

15 days were 5°F - 9°F below average

  8 days were 10°F or more below average

December 13^th was the furthest below average at 17°F below average.  This was the day after we had our only 6+ inch snowfall (6.3 inches officially) of the season when a cold front brought arctic air into our region.  December 13-16 was 17°F, 15°F, 11°F, and 13°F below average respectively.  We are currently going through another cold stretch of double digits temperatures below average with January 21-23 at 10°F, 13°F, and 13°F below average.

Looking at the winter as a whole, December was 3.7°F below average and January thus far has been 2.5°F below average, making this winter 3.2°F below average.  That doesn’t sound like a big deal, but looking at the numbers above, you can see that it has been a cold winter.

Out of the 10 days above average, the warmest was on December 31^st when temperature was 19°F above average.  The longest stretch of above average temperatures was December 30 to January 1 when temperatures were 9°F, 19°F, and 13°F above average respectively.

So what does the future hold?  It doesn’t look promising.  The two images below (courtesy of CPC) show the 6-10 day and 8-14 day probability of temperatures being either above average, average, or below average.  The 6-10 day temperature probability outlook gives Michigan a 40%-50% chance of experiencing temperatures below average and even worse, the 8-14 day temperature probability puts Michigan in the 60% chance of below average temperatures.

 

Looking into February, the two images below show the temperature probability map and the precipitation probability map (again, courtesy of CPC).  The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gives Michigan a 40% chance of experiencing below average temperatures for the month of February, keeping the trend of a cold winter.  Looking at the precipitation map, the CPC gives Michigan a 40% chance of experiencing above average precipitation.  This is good news for those of us who look forward to snowstorms.  Surprisingly, considering the fact that we have only had one snowstorm so far with 6+ inches, we are not very far from our season average up to this point.  The average snowfall total for December and January is 23 inches and so far we have 21.9 inches, with eight days left in January.

 So try to stay warm!