Concerning the weather on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day…the system that looked to have a chance to impact portions of our area no longer appears to be an issue. Most models show the system moving along the Gulf Coast and then up the East Coast. This could turn into an impressive storm and a mess for anyone traveling to the New England states for the holidays.
Since there isn’t much expected with the weather in our area for the next several days, I figured I would discuss an interesting article that I came across today on the NWS Detroit page. The article looks at the weather on Christmas during the past 110 years and determines the probability of our area having a white Christmas. If you want to read the entire article, then click here.
To have an official white Christmas, there has to be at least one inch of snow covering the ground at 7am on Christmas Day morning. It doesn’t matter when the snow occurred, just as long as there is an inch on the ground. Also, it is worth mentioning that official measurements are taken at the Detroit Metro Airport (Romulus, MI) for Detroit and its surrounding communities. So if there is an inch or more of snow on the ground in Sterling Heights but not at the Detroit Metro Airport, then it is not considered to be a white Christmas.
With those details out of the way, the map below is the probability of a white Christmas across the US. You can see that southeast Michigan's probability ranges from 41% to 75% depending on the location. The probability increases the further north you go in Michigan, with a probability of 90% or more in the UP...which is no surprise.
During the past 110 years in Detroit, 52 years (47%) had a white Christmas. Flint has an average of 56%, while Saginaw and the thumb region have a 61% average. Looking at our recent past, the last white Christmas was in 2008 when we had a sloppy, melting snow from a snowstorm on December 19th (which we received as much as a foot of snow) and another on December 23-24 that produced a few inches. In 2005, we barely had a white Christmas with 4 inches melting down to 1 inch by Christmas morning. In 2004, we had a white Christmas with fresh snow thanks to a snowstorm on December 23rd which brought about 8 inches to the Detroit area.
This article also had several other interesting facts…
1.
The most snow on the ground on Christmas Day was in 1951 when there was 13 inches of snow on the ground.
2.
The most snow that fell on Christmas Day was in 1915 when 6.4 inches of snow was recorded at the airport. However in 2000, 6 inches of snow fell on Christmas Day at the airport, but everywhere else west and north of the airport received between 8-15 inches of snow.
3.
The warmest temperature on Christmas was 64 degrees in 1982.
4.
The coldest temperature on Christmas was the very next year in 1983 with a low of -9 degrees. The winds were averaging 25-30mph creating wind chills as low as -40 degrees!
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