As anyone that lives in southeast Michigan knows, it has been pretty cold around here the past couple weeks. Since our last snowstorm that occurred on December 12th, the average high for the Detroit area has been 26.6°F which is about 8°F below average. The temperature anomaly map below shows that most of the eastern half of the U.S. has been much below average as well (map is in degrees Celsius).
Image courtesy of NCEP/NCAR
The good news is that a brief warm up is on the way at the end of the week. This warm up is thanks a low pressure system that will develop in the west and start to move to the northeast in our direction. As the system approaches, its cyclonic (counterclockwise) spin will bring in warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into our region. By the end of the week, temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 40s, which will cause the snow and ice on the ground to start melting. With this system will come rain, and it looks like there will be a decent amount of it. This is no surprise considering the amount of moisture this system will have to play with. The bad news is that it looks like almost all of the precipitation will fall as rain, with a chance of a rain/snow/sleet mix towards the end as the cold front passes, so no accumulating snow is expected at this point, just the melting of what we have now. If this were to be an all snow system, it could have brought a good six inches of snow. Once the cold front passes, cold air will begin to rush back in causing temperatures to fall back to around normal on Sunday. The maps below give a visual to what to expect over the next few days.
Image courtesy of HPC
The above image shows the expected location of the low pressure system on Friday morning. Michigan is in the warm sector ahead of the cold front, with warm and moist air advecting from the south, temperatures are expected to be in the mid/upper 40s.
Image courtesy of HPC
The above image shows the expected location of the low pressure system one day later on Saturday morning. The cold front is in the region, meaning it will completely pass through Michigan sometime during the day on Saturday. Behind the cold front will be cold air moving into the region, so the expected high of around 45°F on Saturday will probably occur earlier in the day and temperatures will start to slowly drop during the afternoon and evening hours as cold air continues to move in.
Image courtesy of HPC
The above image shows the expected precipitation amount during a 5 day period between Wednesday December 29th and Monday January 3rd. The expected precipitation in southeast Michigan will occur as the system approaches Thursday through Saturday. It looks that between 0.25-0.50 inches of rain is expected by the HPC. I think that might be a bit on the low end, but we will see over the next couple days.
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