It looks that southeast Michigan will receive snow on Tuesday, but that is the only certainty at this point in time. The exact timing, track, and strength of the system are still a bit of an unknown due to model disagreements. The most aggressive model (GFS) is forecasting 2-4 inches of snow, but the weakest model (NAM) is forecasting nothing more than a dusting. It appears that the best guess forecast at this point is to go in the middle and forecast an inch or two of snow.
Why the disagreements? Part of the reason is the upper-level energy that will develop the low pressure system is still out in the Pacific Ocean. Once it moves over the U.S. sometime tonight, forecast models will be able to get a better handle on how everything will unfold. Another reason is some models have the system becoming more developed and moving faster while others have a less developed, slower moving system. These differences lead to different results. Monday morning’s model runs will have a much better handle on the situation and I expect to see more consistency between the models.
One agreement that appears to be shared between all the models is that this system will quickly weaken as it approaches the Great Lakes. An indication of this is the winter storm warnings and advisories to our west from Montana through Wisconsin, but nothing yet for our area.
I will type another posting sometime tomorrow, maybe with an image or two if it looks like we’ll get more than an inch of snow. Oh, and keep an eye out for Friday/Saturday. It might get interesting.
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